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sUAS Mid-Air Collision Likelihood

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sUAS Mid-Air Collision Likelihood Photo


Complete Mid-Air Collision (MAC) risk assessments require estimates of both collision severity and collision likelihood. This research focuses on sUAS MAC likelihood analysis with General Aviation (GA) and commercial aircraft. Because severity research varies based on where a collision occurred on a manned aircraft, this likelihood research will not only look at the probability of MAC but also the likelihood of colliding with different parts of a manned aircraft.

The following research questions should be answered:

  • What is the probability of a UAS without a detect and avoid (DAA) system colliding with a manned aircraft?
  • What is the probability of a UAS with a detect and avoid system colliding with a manned aircraft?
  • What role does altitude play in collision likelihood?
  • What is the overall risk of MAC with and without a detect and avoid system?
  • How does UAS collision risk compare with the risk of a bird strike?

Project Lead
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Dr. Gerardo Olivares
Director & Senior Research Scientist
Computational Mechanics and Crash Dynamics Laboratories
National Institute for Aviation Research